Project Introduction:
Climate change is one of the most important and most difficult environmental challenge facing the globe today.  IPCC and other scientific assessments indicate that deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the coming decades are critical in averting some of the most damaging and irreversible impacts from climate change. 

The State of California has emerged as an early leader within the United States and worldwide for committing to policy and regulations to curb the emissions of greenhouse gases. Governor Schwarzenegger, in agreement with the scientific estimates and the need for significant action, has called for drastic reductions in state greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 

One of the more challenging areas to reduce carbon emissions is from the transport sector because of the challenging technical specifications for automotive and aviation power sources.  Even identifying options and strategies that can help to reduce emissions by 80% is not a trivial task.  This project can help by starting to investigate these options and strategies in the transport sector. 

Project Overview and Goals:
The objective of this project is to provide a starting point for understanding the challenges and options for deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in California.  It will be a useful guide to policy makers, researchers, industry and the public to better understand the magnitude an 80% reduction and what such reductions could mean in terms of required technology and behavior.  It is not initially meant to be a comprehensive assessment of every possible approach and a definitive answer on the best ways to achieve the goals, but merely provides a useful starting point and points to tangible options that can lead to these goals.  I envision it to be analogous to the Socolow and Pacala carbon "wedges" paper in Science that highlighted a number of different technology options that could lead to 1GtC reduction from business as usual emissions by 2050.  This paper was effective because it provided a simplified approach to thinking about climate stabilizing greenhouse gas reductions as well as provide tangible actions (which were understandable to people) that highlighted the possibilities and large challenges associated with reducing  BAU emissions in 1 GtC increments. 

The analysis will help identify and elucidate the options and challenges for meeting the transportation-related GHG reduction goals for 2050 in California.  The project will discuss various options for GHG emissions reductions stemming from three major areas:
•    Travel demand reduction
•    Fuel economy improvements
•    Fuel decarbonization
The approaches to reducing carbon emissions from transportation fuel usage can be applied to multiple transportation modes and sectors:
•    Light-duty vehicles (LDVs)
•    Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs)
•    Rail
•    Aviation
•    Off-road and Agriculture

I am envisioning this analysis and resulting report will also be similar to the LCFS technical document.  One section can help to identify, describe and evaluate the potential for individual technologies and options (such as EVs, biofuels, mode shifting, land use planning) to help reduce GHG emission from transportation.  Another section will focus on creating "snapshots" of futures that meet the GHG target goals (80% reduction by 2050 and perhaps some intermediate goals in earlier years).  These futures are not meant to be forecasts or predictions of the future, but rather represent possible mixes of options that can be implemented to meet the medium and long-term goals.  The idea is to explore tradeoffs between the various approaches (VMT, fuel economy and fuel decarbonization) and also between the various transport types. 

One of the major outputs of this work will be a simple spreadsheet model that enables a user to vary assumptions to explore the tradeoffs between options that are permissible while still meeting the emission reduction targets.  
 
Expected Project Outputs:
The major outputs of the project are:
    •    A report/journal paper detailing the major results of the analysis including
            o    Brief technical description of possible options and their potential for GHG reductions
            o    Snapshots of several future mixes of these options that can be combined to meet GHG targets
    •    Excel spreadsheet model

Project Structure
I think that this project could be completed in one quarter.  It could be organized as a 2-unit class with a few interested students or simply as a side project for interested students.  In the case that it's not a class, it's may not be necessary to provide funding to students in order to induce them to participate. 

Potential Analytical Topics
Potential Policy and Technology Levers and Options
Travel demand reduction
    Aircraft
    LDV
    Mode shifting
Fuel economy
LDV
Aircraft
Freight
Rail
Transit
Fuel switch/blending/upstream efficiency
    Aircraft
    Freight
    LDV

Other Important Considerations
Discuss costs
Energy security and economic vulnerability
Sustainability (other important areas, e.g. land use, water)
Domestic/local resources

Other Info:
We could coordinate with the state Climate Action Team which is tasked with identifying and implementing greenhouse gas reductions for the state of California.

Governor's Executive Order S-3-05
Reduce 2050 GHG emissions to 20% of 1990 levels
Requires approximately an 85% reduction of GHGs from today's levels

GHG emissions in California (MMTCO2e)
                   1990 levels        2007 levels                    2050 Goals
Total            425                   ~500 (+18% vs 1990)    85 (-83% vs. 2007)
Transport    175                    ~205                            35

 Governor's Executive Order

EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENT
STATE OF CALIFORNIA
Governor's Seal
EXECUTIVE ORDER S-3-05
by the
Governor of the State of California

WHEREAS, California is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; and
WHEREAS, increased temperatures threaten to greatly reduce the Sierra snowpack, one of the State's primary sources of water; and
WHEREAS, increased temperatures also threaten to further exacerbate California's air quality problems and adversely impact human health by increasing heat stress and related deaths, the incidence of infectious disease, and the risk of asthma, respiratory and other health problems; and
WHEREAS, rising sea levels threaten California's 1,100 miles of valuable coastal real estate and natural habitats; and
WHEREAS, the combined effects of an increase in temperatures and diminished water supply and quality threaten to alter micro-climates within the state, affect the abundance and distribution of pests and pathogens, and result in variations in crop quality and yield; and
WHEREAS, mitigation efforts will be necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation efforts will be necessary to prepare Californians for the consequences of global warming; and
WHEREAS, California has taken a leadership role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by: implementing the California Air Resources Board motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission reduction regulations; implementing the Renewable Portfolio Standard that the Governor accelerated; and implementing the most effective building and appliance efficiency standards in the world; and
WHEREAS, California-based companies and companies with significant activities in California have taken leadership roles by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons, related to their operations and developing products that will reduce GHG emissions; and
WHEREAS, companies that have reduced GHG emissions by 25 percent to 70 percent have lowered operating costs and increased profits by billions of dollars; and
WHEREAS, technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly in demand in the worldwide marketplace, and California companies investing in these technologies are well-positioned to profit from this demand, thereby boosting California's economy, creating more jobs and providing increased tax revenue; and
WHEREAS, many of the technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also generate operating cost savings to consumers who spend a portion of the savings across a variety of sectors of the economy; this increased spending creates jobs and an overall benefit to the statewide economy.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor of the State of California, by virtue of the power invested in me by the Constitution and statutes of the State of California, do hereby order effective immediately:
1. That the following greenhouse gas emission reduction targets are hereby established for California: by 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels; by 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels; by 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels; and
2. That the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency ("Secretary") shall coordinate oversight of the efforts made to meet the targets with: the Secretary of the Business, Transportation and Housing Agency, Secretary of the Department of Food and Agriculture, Secretary of the Resources Agency, Chairperson of the Air Resources Board, Chairperson of the Energy Commission, and the President of the Public Utilities Commission; and
3. That the Secretary shall report to the Governor and the State Legislature by January 2006 and biannually thereafter on progress made toward meeting the greenhouse gas emission targets established herein; and
4. That the Secretary shall also report to the Governor and the State Legislature by January 2006 and biannually thereafter on the impacts to California of global warming, including impacts to water supply, public health, agriculture, the coastline, and forestry, and shall prepare and report on mitigation and adaptation plans to combat these impacts; and
5. That as soon as hereafter possible, this Order shall be filed with the Office of the Secretary of State and that widespread publicity and notice be given to this Order.
California Seal     IN WITNESS WHEREOF  I have here unto set my hand and caused the Great Seal of the State of California to be affixed this the first day of June 2005.
/s/ Arnold Schwarzenegger
Governor of California