STEPS, Institute of Transportation Studies, Davis
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STEPS, Institute of Transportation Studies, Davis

2028 Academic Surge
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616

(530) 752-6548 phone

 

Integrative Scenarios

The objective of this research is to incorporate quantitative results from a range of STEPS projects to develop integrated, self-consistent and insightful scenarios of possible transportation futures. The quantitative models applied within this research will vary in complexity, but they are likely to be of two types: bottom-up or top-down. The bottom-up VISION model (from Argonne National Lab) is currently being applied to evaluate the introduction of AFVs Nationally and in California. A second potential bottom-up model is the MARKAL model. As the STEPS Program evolves, a top-down or economic model may also be incorporated to support scenario development (such as the NEMS, MINICAM, BEAR or AMIGA models, or a Systems Dynamics model such as HyDIVE).

Thread Leader: Sonia Yeh
Graduate Student Researchers: Joel Bremson, Wayne Leighty, David McCollum
Collaborating Researchers: David Greene


Recent Publications


Major Project Areas


  • National Introduction of AFVs. These scenarios will be developed in the context of national goals for alternative fuels, greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum imports.  These scenarios will be developed in conjunction with the DOE Multi-Pathways project.

  • Introducing AFVs in California. These scenarios will be developed in the context of state policy goals for alternative fuels, greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum imports. The scenario results will inform particular state-level policies (e.g., the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, AB 32, AB 1007, etc).
  • Resource Base Analysis. These scenarios will address the potential to support AFVs by drawing upon a subset of existing energy resources (biomass, coal, wind, etc.).  The resulting scenarios will improve upon past studies (e.g. the NRDC Growing Energy study, Nathanael Green et al., 2004).
  • Scenarios for Transportation GHG reductions.  These scenarios provide high-level analyses of GHG emission and mitigation options from all transportation subsectors (light-duty, heavy-duty, rail, marine, aviation, agriculture and off-road vehicles).


Structure of "Cross-Comparison" in this research

The figure below demonstrates some of the connections between studies within the STEPS Program and major scenario variables.  While a greater or lesser number of connections may be required for any particular scenario, the connections shown here are indicative of the degree to which scenario models can integrate particular results from each thread.




Specific Collaboration with Other Research

To the degree that a large synthesis report is produced from the STEPS Program, similar to the MIT 2020 study, scenario models can be used to integrate the results within dynamic and internally consistent scenarios rather than presenting disjointed results or metrics from a “snapshot” in time.


The VISION-CA Model Website

The VISION-CA model is a modified version of the VISION model originally developed by researchers at Argonne National Laboratory. To learn more about the original VISION model visit the Argonne VISION model website. The VISION-CA model has the same underlying structure as the Argonne VISION model, but it has been modified to represent the California transportation sector and to analyze metrics relevant to the LCFS.

The VISION-CA model is still under development. A preliminary version of the model (an excel spreadsheet) is available to make the analysis presented in Part I of the UC LCFS study more transparent. However, this version has limited capability. Future versions of the model will be more user-friendly and will incorporate more detailed representations of the California transportation sector, including heavy duty vehicles.

You can download this preliminary version of the VISION-CA model (5MB) (when opening the Excel file, enable macros, and click "no" for updating links). To receive updates, or to send comments or questions, send an email to Sonia Yeh.


80in50 - Meeting 80% Reduction in California Transportation GHG Emissions in 2050

The 80in50 project focuses on understanding what levels of technology, fuels and travel demand reductions must be employed in order to meet long-term targets (80% reduction) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector in California.  This project developed the LEVERS model to investigate future scenarios with different mixes of mitigation options.  These snapshots of the transportation mix in 2050 are used to calculate emissions and evaluate GHG reductions. The project results provide important information about the challenges of reducing transportation emissions and considerations for policy.



Relevant Posters and Presentations