UC Working Group on Low Carbon Fuel Standard Implementation Studies
(Last updated October 5, 2009)
California adopted a land mark carbon policy, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), on April 23, 2009. The LCFS is designed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of our future transportation fuels by 10% by 2020. The emission reduction policy will cover the lifecycle emissions of all transportation fuels, capturing emissions from oil well, corn field, production transport, to consumptions. The LCFS is expected to reduce 20-25 million tonnes lifecycle CO2e emissions by 2020, about 10% of the AB32 target by 2020.
The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis (ITS-Davis) LCFS team, led by Dr. Sonia Yeh, has made significant contributions supporting the regulation through our research. Our work provides important background data and analysis needed for CARB's analyses of the compliance scenarios, technology and economic assessment, lifecycle analysis, environmental impact assessment and sustainability.
The ITS-Davis LCFS team also conducts our independent research in parallel and publishes series of reports, journal articles, presentations, memos, etc that aims to provide objective research and recommendations for future improvements. The TS-Davis LCFS team has also been interacting with others who are engaged in the development of LCFS-like regulation elsewhere, including national LCFS bill, the Northeast states, and the EU.
Our current work focuses on the remaining technical and policy design challenges of the California LCFS, the design issues associated with LCFS beyond 2020, sustainability safeguards for the LCFS, and the national LCFS.
To view an extensive collection of the UC work prior to September 2007, as well as links to other resources related to the LCFS, please go to:
California Air Resources Board's LCFS program can be found here. The website contains legislative work for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard including background information, Carbon Intensity Calculator (The California GREET model), public comments, workshops and meetings, and contacts.
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UC Researchers and Collaborators
Research Areas:
This research compares the effectiveness of difference policies, especially the LCFS vs. the cap-and-trade program. We also explore the biofuel resource and GHG reduction potential in California and in the western U.S. states and the potential electrification applications to replace transportation fuels. We intend to tackles the following questions: Are there enough low-GHG fuels available to meet the standard? How much production of in-state resources will be available or necessary to meet the LCFS? Given that the standard is flexible and designed to promote innovation, what are the likely competing technologies for compliance with the standard? What are the costs of compliance from fuel providers’ perspective?
The study developed a methodology that combines optimization methods from operations research and the geographic tools available through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) into an integrated model of the biofuel industry. The integrated model analyzes biofuel supply chains from the field or other biomass source to the fuel distribution terminal.
This study intends to use a system accounting approach to understand the long-term GHG balances of forest management (e.g. unthinned, burn only, understory thin, understory thin and burn, etc), and other the long-term impacts including fire reduction benefits, ecological impacts, environmental impacts, etc. The study will also estimate the economics of forest waste biofuels: investment cost, O&M cost breakdown, sensitivity to transportation distances, collection cost, scale, and values of end products (biofuel). Combined with the sustainability research, we will explore how do existing sustainability criteria (e.g. existing forest practices standards, agricultural practice standards, ) and any additional criteria fit into this discussion? How do mandatory reporting, voluntary certification, and mandatory certification approaches work now and are there any additions or changes that should be considered?
This research examines a range of sustainability requirements for biofuels and considers a possible framework for the LCFS sustainability provision. Our goal is to identify the proper mechanisms to further incentivize sustainable production of biofuels and other relevant transportation fuels while minimizing environmental impacts and unintended consequences.
This research quantifies the lifecycle GHG emissions associated with transportation fuels. Lifecycle GHG emissions is the underlying unit measuring the performance of fuels under the LCFS. The standard captures all GHGs emitted in the lifecycle from extraction, cultivation, land use conversion, processing, transport and distribution, and fuel use. We also explore direct land use greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with upstream fossil fuel production, including conventional oil production in California, and oil sands production in Alberta.
The problem of water scarcity in California will potentially affect the choice of transportation fuels and technologies that California will adopt to meet its greenhouse gas emissions targets. New low-carbon transportation fuels, such as biofuels, electricity, hydrogen, and unconventional oil, have the potentials to use large amount of water within the State. Our study will characterize fuel pathways to meet California’s energy needs by 2020 and their water demands, focusing on the water tradeoffs of the various pathways.
This study will identify some sources of divergence in models’ estimates of biofuel-related indirect land use change GHG emissions within the different methods, assumptions, scenarios, and model combinations chosen to represent energy, agricultural, and land use sectors, as well as to account for GHG emissions from the land use change. Comparing myriad approaches can inform policymakers’ assessments of findings as well as future model development by highlighting areas of agreement, disagreement, and uncertainty.
This study will have two objectives: 1) design an effective and implementable national LCFS; and 2) compare an LCFS with other policy instruments that have the potential to significantly reduce transportation GHG emissions from fuel use.
Donald Gautier, USGS geologist, presents on petroleum in the arctic