ILUC
Study of Indirect Land Use Change from US Biofuel Policies
Indirect land use change (iLUC) has emerged as a critical factor in the policy debate surrounding biofuels –with a potentially large effect but one that is difficult to estimate. At the same time, regulations at both state (California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard) and federal (US Renewable Fuel Standard) levels require iLUC to be accounted for in determining whether specific biofuels meet standards.
Studies that incorporate iLUC, still relatively few in number, tend to give estimates for biofuel-related GHG emissions considerably higher than those that don't consider iLUC (see Figure), but there are still many sources of uncertainty in a modeling effort in its infancy.
Source: GAO 2009.
To better understand sources of uncertainty and their impact on results, we are evaluating how existing economic models that trace policy effects on agricultural sector commodities and their markets are being adapted to answer research questions that require a more detailed accounting of land cover and land use. We are also working with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) on extending its International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to assess land use change and its consequences resulting from US biofuels policies.
Principal Researchers
- Julie Witcover, post-doctoral researcher (Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis)
- Sonia Yeh, Research Scientist (Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis)
Reference
Government Accountability Office (GAO). 2009. Biofuels: Potential Effects and Challenges of Required Increases in Production and Use. GAO-09-446. Report to Congressional Requesters. http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-446.
Donald Gautier, USGS geologist, presents on petroleum in the arctic