Summary

CCPM 1 and CCPM 2 brought together energy modelers to address a range of energy-related questions in California, with discussions around setting important targets and the policies to achieve these. Following on these two successful one-day workshops held in 2013 and 2015, UC Davis will host a CCPM-3 workshop that will provide important foundational analysis and insights to the California policymakers and stakeholders as they consider possible new targets and policy initiatives in 2018.  These may include, but are not limited to:

  • A very low GHG target, such as near zero net emissions, by 2050 or earlier
  • A very high renewables target post 2030, and
  • A ZEV uptake target of 5 million in 2030 and 100% sales target by 2040 or other year.

This workshop will specifically inform the planned Governor’s Global Climate Action Summit in September 2018 and provide a critical scientific foundation for targets considered at that summit.

Like the previous CCPM efforts, this workshop will convene important energy system modelers from around the state to compare specific scenarios relevant to potential or actual California targets and estimate optimal pathways and costs of achieving these targets.  It will broaden the discussion out from energy systems to also include a session on agriculture and forestry, and how this sector can contribute to mitigation efforts.

Results from this workshop will be shared with key officials at the Governor’s office, in the legislature, and with the California Air Resources Board and other agencies, and will be fed into the planning for the Governor’s Summit.

Agenda

(download agenda pdf)

8:30 a.m. Registration and Coffee

9:00 a.m. Welcome and Introductory Remarks

  • Lew Fulton, Co-Director, STEPS Program, UC Davis
  • Austin Brown, Executive Director, Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy, UC Davis

9:10 a.m. Keynote

Aimee Barnes, Senior Advisor, Office of Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr.

9:30 a.m. Session 1: The big picture: Achieving very low CO2 futures

    Moderator: Lew Fulton, Co-Director, STEPS Program, UC Davis
    • Amber Mahone, Director of Clean Energy, E3
    • Noah Deich, Executive Director, Center for Carbon Removal
    • Sonia Yeh, Professor, Chalmers University of Technology
    Discussion

10:30 a.m. Coffee Break

10:50 a.m. Session 2: Achieving a zero carbon electric sector

    Moderator: Amber Mahone, Director of Clean Energy, E3
  • Sam Evans, Postdoctoral Fellow, UC Berkeley
  • Max Wei, Program Manager, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • Mark Delucchi, Research Scientist, UC Berkeley
  • Daniel Hopper, Senior Manager, Southern California Edison
    Discussion

12:10 p.m. Lunch

1:00 p.m. Session 3: Transportation sector targets: 5 million EVs by 2030, 100% ZEV sales in 2040?

    Moderator: Marshall Miller, Senior Development Engineer, STEPS
  • Chris Busch, Research Director, Energy Innovation
  • Gil Tal, Researcher, Plug-In Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center, UC Davis
  • Nancy Ryan, Director of Policy and Strategy, E3
    Discussion

2:15 p.m. Coffee Break

2:30 p.m. Session 4: Role of agriculture and forestry in achieving very low CO2 futures

    Moderator: Noah Deich, Executive Director, Center for Carbon Removal
  • Katharine Mach, Senior Research Scientist, Stanford University
  • Dick Cameron, Director of Science, Land Conservation Programs, The Nature Conservancy
  • Emily McGlynn, PhD Student, UC Davis
    Discussion

3:45 p.m. Session 5: Panel and audience discussion - what can we learn from the models/discussion and what don't we know going forward?

    • Moderator: Anthony Eggert, Transportation Director, ClimateWorks

    • Dan Sperling, Director, ITS-Davis and STEPS
    • Alice Reynolds, Senior Advisor, Office of Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr.
    • Ryan McCarthy, California Air Resources Board

Discussion

5:00 p.m. Closing thoughts

    Lew Fulton and Austin Brown

5:15 p.m. Reception (Alumni Center - Moss Patio)

Presentations

Keynote

Aimee Barnes

 

Aimee Barnes is a Partner with Allotrope Partners, focused on investing in low-carbon and clean energy project development in emerging markets. Previously, Aimee was appointed Deputy Secretary for Border and Intergovernmental Relations by Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. in December 2013. From 2010-2013, she worked as an international climate change policy analyst at the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs, helping to establish their Directorate of Energy and Climate Change. Aimee advised the Directorate on international climate change policy, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations and the UN Conference on Sustainable Development. Prior to that, Aimee served as a policy advisor to the United Kingdom Department of Energy and Climate Change in their Strategy Directorate from 2009 to 2010. From 2007 to 2009, Aimee was the senior manager for U.S. regulatory affairs at EcoSecurities, and from 2005-2006 she worked as the coordinator of California advocacy and Latino outreach and as a senior land attorney assistant at the Natural Resources Defense Council. In this position she worked on environmental policy advocacy in California, and supported the launch of NRDC’s bespoke Spanish language website, La Onda Verde. Aimee holds a degree in Environmental Studies from Dartmouth College, and a Master of Public Administration degree in Environmental Science and Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

Speakers

  • Emily McGlynnEmily McGlynn

    Emily McGlynn  is an expert on climate, energy, and environmental policy, focusing on land use and land management issues. Currently a PhD student in the University of California Davis’ Agriculture and Resource Economics department, Emily previously served as Deputy Associate Director for Energy and Climate Change in the Obama White House. In this capacity she was a lead author of the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization. Emily also served as Senior Adviser to the Special Envoy for Climate Change Todd Stern at the U.S. Department of State, leading on high priority international initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including bilateral cooperation with China. Emily has supported investment in environmental markets as Director for Strategy and Policy at The Earth Partners, a company identifying private sector solutions to land restoration. As a German Foreign Ministry-supported Transatlantic Fellow at the Technische Universitaet Berlin and Ecologic Institute, Emily developed climate and environmental policy recommendations for the European Commission and other public and private sector stakeholders. She has a background in biology and economics from Bryn Mawr College and Johns Hopkins University

  • Alice ReynoldsAlice Reynolds

    Alice Reynolds is senior advisor to the Governor for climate, the environment and energy in the Office of Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. She has served as deputy secretary for law enforcement and counsel at the California Environmental Protection Agency since 2011. Reynolds served as a deputy attorney general at the California Department of Justice, Office of the Attorney General from 2002 to 2011 and was an attorney at Sonnenschein Nath and Rosenthal LLP from 1998 to 2001 and at Furth Fahrner and Mason from 1995 to 1998. Reynolds served as a research attorney at the Santa Clara County Superior Court from 1993 to 1995. She earned a Juris Doctor degree from the Santa Clara University School of Law. This position does not require Senate confirmation and the compensation is $172,008. Reynolds is a Democrat.

  • Amber MahoneAmber Mahone

    Amber Mahone directs E3’s Clean Energy team. She pursues a data-driven approach to informing investment decisions and policy choices, and relishes unpacking meaningful results from complex models and translating them into actionable decision points for E3’s clients. Amber’s work draws on her expertise in policy analysis, energy systems modeling, resource planning, and energy efficiency, managing some of E3’s most high-profile, high-impact projects. These include evaluating the impacts of California’s 50 percent Renewables Portfolio Standard and analyzing long-term greenhouse gas reduction pathways for the heads of California’s energy and environmental agencies and the office of Gov. Jerry Brown. Amber began her career working in development at the International Monetary Fund.

  • Austin BrownAustin Brown

    Austin Brown is Executive Director of the UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, the Environment, and the Economy, which acts as a bridge between scientific researchers and decision-makers to deliver credible, relevant, and timely information and analysis—assisting and informing the policymaking process in Sacramento, Washington, D.C., and internationally. Previously, Dr. Brown was the Assistant Director for Clean Energy and Transportation in the Obama White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy. His work there focused on transformative options for clean transportation, including clean energy, energy efficiency, efficient and electrified vehicles, renewable fuels, vehicle automation, and novel transportation systems.Dr. Brown was trained as a scientist and holds a B.S. in Physics from Harvey Mudd College and a Ph.D. in Biophysics from Stanford University.

  • Chris BuschChris Busch

    Chris Busch is Energy Innovation’s Research Director and leads the firm’s California climate policy and urban sustainability programs. Chris is currently developing a California-version of EI’s Energy Policy Simulator. Chris contributed to the 12 Green Guidelines for China Development Bank Capital, which served as an input to the recently released Emerald Cities guidebook, a deepening of EI’s efforts to provide specific design guidance for sustainable urbanization in China. Prior to Energy Innovation, Chris was Policy Director for the BlueGreen Alliance, where he testified before the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee’s Power and Energy Subcommittee, and was appointed to California’s Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee.  Chris served as a Climate Economist for the Union of Concerned Scientists and as a Senior Research Associate at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.  Chris holds a PhD in environmental economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

     

  • Dan SperlingDan Sperling

    Dr. Daniel Sperling is Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy, and founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis (ITS-Davis). The Institute has over 150 faculty, staff and student researchers. He has led ITS-Davis to international prominence by building strong partnerships with industry, government, and the environmental community, integrating interdisciplinary research and education programs, and connecting research with public outreach and education.In June 2013, he was named a recipient of the Blue Planet Prize from the Asahi Glass Foundation.

  • Daniel HopperDaniel Hopper

    Dan Hopper is a Manager of Analytics in the Strategy, Integrated Planning and Performance organization. 9 My responsibilities include oversight of resource economics, integrated resource planning 10 analytics at SCE. He  earned a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering from the University of Nevada, Reno, a 13 Master in Economics from California University, Fullerton, and a Master in Business 14 Administration from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been in my current role at 15 SCE since 2016. Previously, he was Manager of DSM Forecasting and Cost-Effectiveness for 16 SCE. Prior to working with SCE, he was a managing engineer at Raytheon Space and Airborne 17 Systems.

  • Dick CameronDick Cameron

    Dick Cameron leads the Land Programs science team in The Nature Conservancy’s California Chapter. His work is focused on creating the tools and evidence to integrate conservation into land use and climate policies. Across a variety of California landscapes, his research assesses opportunities to align land conservation and other societal goals, such as alternative energy development, transportation infrastructure, food production and climate stabilization. Currently his priorities are focused on two climate-related conservation questions: how can ecological land management contribute to climate mitigation goals, and how to design connected networks of land that will help species adapt to climate change? Before the Conservancy, Dick worked for GreenInfo Network, where he specialized in helping organizations and public agencies design and communicate strategic priorities. His academic background is in geography with a B.A. from Middlebury College and an M.A. from University of Colorado.

  • Gil TalGil Tal

    Gil Tal Directs the Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Center at UC Davis. He holds a Ph.D. in Transportation Technology and Policy from UC Davis, and an M.A. in geography and environmental policy and planning from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Between 2008 and 2010 Dr. Tal was a post-doctoral researcher with the Center for Global Metropolitan Studies and the UC Transportation Center at UC Berkeley. His work at UC Davis and UC Berkeley focuses on travel behavior and the implementation of travel behavior related policies. At the PH&EV center Dr. Tal is leading projects on the future need for electric vehicle infrastructure, and the correlation between charging infrastructure, travel behavior and the demand for EV’s. He is currently leading research on number of projects including a study on local planning and deployment of electric vehicle infrastructure, a study on GIS tools for infrastructure planning, a multi-state study of new plug-in vehicle buyers, and a study on the secondary market of plug-in vehicles in California.

  • Kate LarsenKate Larsen

    Kate Larsen, a Director at Rhodium Group, manages the firm’s work on US and global climate change in the Climate Impact Lab. Previously, Kate was Deputy Director for Energy and Climate Change at the White House Council on Environmental Quality, where she helped develop President Obama’s Climate Action Plan. Kate also worked in the Office of Climate Change at the U.S. Department of State, serving as lead U.S. negotiator on mitigation commitments and compliance in the United Nations climate negotiations. She was a lead contributors in designing the first universal system for measurement, reporting, and verification of developed and developing country emissions and commitments under the U.N. Kate has also worked at the International Energy Agency in Paris, the World Resources Institute in Washington, and the Environmental Defense Fund in California. She received a Bachelor’s degree in Human Biology from Stanford University and a Master’s of Public Administration from the University of Texas, Austin.

  • Katharine MachKatharine Mach

    Katharine Mach is a Senior Research Scientist at Stanford University, an Adjunct Assistant Professor at Carnegie Mellon University, and a Visiting Investigator at the Carnegie Institution for Science. She leads the Stanford Environment Assessment Facility (SEAF). Her research is focused on integrative assessment of climate change risks and response options. Priorities include advancing methods for integrating evidence, applying expert judgment, and communicating resulting syntheses of knowledge. From 2010 until 2015, Mach co-directed the scientific activities of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which focuses on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. This work culminated in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report and its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Mach received her PhD from Stanford University and AB from Harvard College.

  • Lew FultonLew Fulton

    Lewis Fulton has worked internationally in the field of transport/energy/environment analysis and policy development for over 20 years. He is Co-Director of the STEPS Program within the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. There he helps lead a range of research activities around new vehicle technologies and new fuels, and how these can gain rapid acceptance in the market. From 2007-2012 he was a Senior Transport Specialist with the International Energy Agency, Paris, as well as Division Head for Energy Technology Policy during 2011-2012. He returned to the IEA in 2007 after working there originally from 1999-2005. During 2006-2007 he worked in Kenya with the UN Environment Program, developing and implementing GEF-funded sustainable transport projects around the world. During the 1990s he also worked at the US Department of Energy for 4 years, and taught at the Independent University of Bangladesh and the University of Maryland.

  • Mark DelucchiMark Delucchi

    Mark Delucchi is a Research Scientist at UC Berkeley. His research involves economics, environmental science, analysis of energy technologies, systems engineering, and town planning. It addresses fundamental philosophical and conceptual questions, methodological issues, and details of data quality and mathematical modeling. Mark’s current research can be grouped into these subject areas: i) DEEP GREEN – Detailed Environmental and Economic Projections for Global Renewable Energy and Emissions sceNarios. ii) 100% wind, water, and solar power for the world. iii) Social cost-benefit analysis of energy use and motor-vehicle use. iv) IMSSA – Integrated Modeling Systems and Scenario Analysis. v) AVCEM – Advanced Vehicle Cost and Energy-Use Model. vi) Design and analysis of a sustainable transportation

  • Marshall MillerMarshall Miller

    Marshall Miller received his Ph.D. in physics from the University of Pennsylvania. After a post-doc at the University of Chicago, he joined the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis in 1993. His work focuses on advanced technologies and fuels to increase fuel economy and reduce emissions in the transportation sector. He manages the Advanced Vehicle Propulsion Systems Laboratory at UC Davis where he studies batteries and ultracapacitors to understand their applications in vehicles. He has developed models to assess the potential greenhouse gas reductions and cost implications from the market penetration of new vehicle technologies in the light-duty and trucking sectors. He has worked with transit agencies, utilities, regulatory agencies, industry, and non-profits to understand the implications of specific vehicle and fuel technologies including fuel cells, batteries, hydrogen, and biofuels.

  • Max WeiMax Wei

    Max Wei is a Program Manager for the Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Max’s projects are with the Energy Efficiency Standards Group, as well as with the Sustainable Energy Systems Group. Max analyzes the geographical dependence of CO2 and health impacts from energy efficiency standards in HVAC. In his current work for Sustainable Energy Systems, Max models total cost of ownership for stationary fuel cell systems, and the learning curve and cost reduction analysis of energy-related technologies. Max has five years of experience in energy analysis and 10 years of industry experience in advanced manufacturing and technology development. Max has expertise in the areas of techno-economic analysis and life-cycle cost analysis of existing and emerging technology applications; manufacturing cost analysis and total cost of ownership modeling of existing and emerging energy technologies; and modeling future energy systems and scenarios.

  • Nancy RyanNancy Ryan

    Dr. Nancy Ryan is an economist with E3 focusing on GHG mitigation policy, transportation electrification and electricity regulation. She handles the regulatory and business strategy work at E3. Nancy has taught regulatory policy and cost-benefit analysis at the University of California and the University of British Columbia and educates leaders in other industries, such as transportation, that experience the effects of changes in the energy landscape. Nancy joined E3 in 2013 after working for seven years with the California Public Utilities Commission, where was appointed a commissioner by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, serving from 2010 to 2011. She also served as deputy executive director for policy and external relations and chief of staff to the president, and worked for five years at the Environmental Defense Fund and held positions at several consulting firms. Nancy holds a PhD in Economics by the University of California, Berkeley, and a BA in Economics from Yale University

  • Noah DeichNoah Deich

    Noah Deich co-founded Center for Carbon Removal with Giana Amador. Noah previously worked as a management consultant on clean energy and corporate sustainability projects for large companies across North America. Noah received his M.B.A. from the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley and his B.A. from the University of Virginia.

  • Ryan McCarthyRyan McCarthy

    Ryan is the Science and Technology Policy Advisor to the Chair at the California Air Resources Board, where he focuses on transportation, energy and climate policy issues. He is heavily involved in climate policy discussions related to 2030 targets and planning, and is also helping to develop a plan to reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants in California, as required by SB 605 (Lara). Prior to his appointment at ARB by Governor Jerry Brown, McCarthy was chief writer of a strategic plan for plug-in electric vehicles in California and a Science and Technology Policy Fellow in the office of California Assembly Member Wilmer Amina Carter. Ryan received his master’s and doctorate degrees in civil and environmental engineering from UC Davis and bachelor’s degree in structural engineering from UC San Diego.

  • Sam EvansSam Evans

    Sam Evans is an expert on energy economics and econometrics. He has worked extensively in the areas of agricultural, energy, and environmental policy and modeling. His recent research has focused on macroeconomic modeling of California energy and environmental policy. Sam is a postdoctoral fellow in the College of Natural Resources at the University of California, Berkeley. He holds a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from Colorado State University where he was a National Science Foundation IGERT Fellow.

  • Sonia Yeh, Chalmers UniversitySonia Yeh, Chalmers University

    Dr. Sonia Yeh is Professor in Transport and Energy Systems in the Department of Space, Earth and Environment. Her expertise is in energy economics and energy system modeling, alternative transportation fuels, sustainability standards, technological change, and consumer behavior and urban mobility. Between 2007 and 2014, she co-led a large collaborative team from the University of California Davis and UC Berkeley advising the U.S. states of California and Oregon, and British Columbia, Canada to design and implement a market-based carbon policy (Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Clean Fuel Standard (CFS)) targeting GHG emission reductions from the transport sector. She received Academic Federation Award for Excellence in Research by the UC Davis in 2014 and was appointed as Adlerbertska visiting professor at Chalmers University of Technology in 2015. She served as Fulbright Distinguished Chair Professor in Alternative Energy Technology in 2016-2017.